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European Heat Pump Market Overview

Background of the European heat pump market:

The European Heat Pump market achieved significant growth in 2021, with its market size surpassing USD 14 billion and sales of heat pumps increasing by more than 33%, reaching an all-time high. This growth is expected to continue, with the market projected to expand at a CAGR of over 8% from 2022 to 2030.


The inclination towards energy-efficient systems with lower carbon footprints is one of the main drivers of this growth. Additionally, government support and the rising cost of fossil fuels have contributed to the increased adoption of heat pump technology.


In recent years, there has been a significant increase in demand for these systems due to their affordability and ability to displace fossil fuels from the grid, thereby reducing carbon emissions. As of December 2021, there were nearly 18 million heat pump installations in Europe alone. REPowerEU reports that the pace of deployment is expected to double, with an additional 10 million buildings expected to have heat pump installations within the next five years, and approximately 30 million by 2030.


The European market’s average yearly sales growth between 2019 and 2021 is expected to aid in achieving this target, but several barriers could potentially hinder growth, such as metal price volatility, semiconductor supply, and installer availability.


“The growth of the European heat pump sector has surpassed expectations,” said Thomas Nowak, Secretary General of the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), despite concerns over component shortages and post-COVID market uncertainty leading to underestimation of its potential.


Factors contributing to this growth include an increase in energy bills driven by Russia’s gas delivery cuts to Europe, as well as subsidies in countries such as France and Poland. In 2022, European heat pump sales reached 3 million, a 37% increase from the 2.2 million sold in 2021 across 21 countries. The actual figures are likely higher as data from five countries has not been reported. This brings the total number of heat pumps installed in Europe to around 20 million, heating approximately 16% of residential and commercial buildings.


Although fossil fuel-based systems still dominate heating system installations, high gas prices, and government subsidies have made the initial cost of heat pumps, which can exceed €10,000 ($10,686), more appealing.


The market for European heat pumps covers both residential and non-residential applications, spanning regions such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. These areas are expected to remain profitable due to their large populations and relatively low energy consumption, making it possible for individuals to reduce their electricity bills by transitioning to alternative sources like electricity produced from waste or solar power. This, in turn, can contribute to increased income over time due to reduced energy costs.

European heat pump market data
European heat pump market data

Factors That Influence the European Heat Pump Market

The demand for heat pumps in Europe has risen notably, particularly in nations like France, Germany, and the UK. The European heat pump market is influenced by several factors, including government policies, rising population, rising demand for energy-saving products, increasing disposable income, and changing consumer behavior. Other major elements that make a contribution to this trend include:


Growing Significance and Popularity of Renewable Energy Sources:

The growing demand for renewable energy sources like wind and solar power has resulted in higher government subsidies and a greater focus on their utilization in various sectors, including residential, commercial, and industrial settings. Additionally, the expanding prevalence of non-renewable energy resources such as coal and oil has spurred an increase in the demand for renewable energy sources, such as solar power and wind power. In Europe, households with multiple appliances are on the rise, leading to frequent electricity use throughout the day. This trend is expected to boost demand for air-source heat pumps over traditional heating systems since they offer improved efficiency and comfort levels at lower costs.


Rising Interest in Energy-Efficient Heat Pump Products:

The revival of the EU heat pump industry can be linked to several factors such as the rising need for energy-efficient devices, increased emphasis on low-carbon efforts, and greater utilization of renewable energy sources throughout Europe. From 2016 to 2020, there was a surge in the desire for energy-efficient products, including air conditioning units and heat pumps, across Europe. This trend was driven by governmental policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption, as reported by IDC.


Escalating Natural Gas Demand in the Market:

The market growth can be partly attributed to the escalating demand for natural gas, which is a clean, cost-effective, and stable fuel source for heat pumps. Additionally, the upsurge in the use of renewable energy sources and the implementation of affordable policies like Feed-in Tariff (FiT) schemes have contributed to the expansion of the European solar water heating systems sector. Germany, for example, introduced the FiT scheme in 2015, which allows consumers who install solar panels to generate solar power using the sun and get lower electricity tariffs.


Progress in Technology:

The progress in technology has expedited the creation of new products that offer enhanced performance levels and energy efficiency. One such innovation is the DTHP technology that has been developed by manufacturers to provide improved performance levels (32%) compared to conventional heating systems. Furthermore, the introduction of new technologies has amplified the requirement for hybrid heating systems that merge traditional heating systems with cutting-edge advancements such as air conditioning units (ACUs).


Air source heat pump installation

Identifying Potential Obstacles to Projected Growth

The European heating and cooling industry is projected to grow at a robust pace, despite being fiercely competitive. Nonetheless, the market’s growth is likely to be impeded by high initial capital investment costs and short payback periods. Investors can tap into opportunities in related products, such as pumps, condensers, and controls that are expected to see rapid growth in the forecast period.


The market’s growth rate may be affected by several factors, including rising energy prices and the need for renewable energy. Additionally, the sector faces various challenges, including high initial investment costs, low installation efficiency, and inadequate awareness about its benefits. Nevertheless, the market is expected to expand over the forecast period, thanks to rising awareness of environmental issues and stringent environmental regulations.


Significant Initial Investment Required:

A heat pump is an energy-efficient appliance that can be installed in buildings to convert heat energy into electricity for regulating indoor temperatures. It is among the most economical options for controlling indoor temperatures. However, the substantial initial investment required for its installation may discourage potential investors from entering this market.


Longer return on investment period:

The return on investment of a heat pump takes longer due to its higher initial investment and maintenance costs. As a result, potential investors may find it challenging to determine whether investing in such a system is worthwhile.


Stricter Environmental Regulations in Europe:

With the rising energy prices across Europe and growing concerns about climate change, various European countries are expected to introduce stricter environmental regulations, making the European Heat Pump Market more competitive.



Over the past few years, the industry has experienced significant growth, fueled by the increased demand for renewable energy sources. This demand is expected to continue driving the growth of the European heat pump market in the coming years.


Factors contributing to this growth include the rising demand for energy-efficient homes, greater awareness about climate change, and an increase in households with multiple appliances. In addition, the market is expected to see continued growth due to the rising demand for energy-efficient products such as heat pumps and electric vehicles. Furthermore, government initiatives like Renewable Energy Target (RET) and Emissions Trading System (ETS) are expected to provide support for the European heat pump market during the forecast period of 2020-2024.


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